The holidays are drawing to a close, and for the political world a new season is dawning: retirement season.
The new year marks the unofficial starting gun of the campaign season and traditionally produces a flurry of announcements from members of Congress that they will not seek reelection in the fall ? and officials from both parties predict this year will be no different.
Continue ReadingIt?s already begun. Two days after Christmas, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) announced that he will forgo a third term rather than embark on a bruising reelection campaign ? a decision that likely hands the seat to Republicans. Then, on Friday, Ohio Rep. Steve Austria also bowed out, citing a redistricting plan that pits him against a fellow Republican congressman.
Democratic officials say they are closely monitoring several other party members, including 73-year-old New York Rep. Maurice Hinchey and North Carolina Rep. Brad Miller, who faces a narrow road to a sixth term after Republicans drew him into the same seat as another Democratic incumbent in this year?s redistricting. Rep. Heath Shuler, another North Carolina Democrat in a challenging district, raised questions about whether he would retire after he told a local newspaper that being in Congress ?gets old. You have to keep fighting and keep fighting, and sometimes, people just don?t listen.?
Whitney Mitchell, a Shuler spokeswoman, declined via email to elaborate on the congressman?s comments, saying only that ?Congressman Shuler is currently and actively seeking reelection in 2012.?
Democrats have borne the brunt of most of the retirements this year. Seven Democrats and two Republicans in the Senate are not running again, and 17 Democrats and nine Republicans in the House are stepping aside. But senior GOP officials say three of the party?s oldest House members ? Reps. Bill Young of Florida, Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland and Howard Coble of North Carolina ? could announce departures in the days ahead. Additionally, Reps. Elton Gallegly and Jerry Lewis, both California Republicans, have been noncommittal about their 2012 plans.
If any of those members decide to leave Capitol Hill, history suggests they could make their plans clear in the immediate weeks ahead. During the 2010 campaign, five House members and two senators announced their retirement in the month following Christmas. In the 2008 election, four House members and one senator made public their plans to forgo reelection during the same time period.
?This is the period of time where most party leaders hold their breath,? said Chris LaCivita, a former National Republican Senatorial Committee political director. ?They ask, ?What?s the next shoe that?s going to drop???
The retirements typically mark a critical juncture in the emerging campaign, locking in candidate fields before a rush of springtime filing deadlines and primaries approaches.
Politicos say it?s no accident that members make career decisions around the holidays ? a natural time for self-reflection that?s spent with family. With aides and party leaders ? who are usually invested in seeing a lawmaker carry on ? many miles away, a member can be more easily swayed to ditch Washington for good.
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